" The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warns consumers to live on alarm to possible fraudulent claims that they tin earnings on commodity futures or options trading every bit a number of changes inward the prices of physical commodities based on seasonal conditions patterns or other well-known events."
It goes on to rank that
"Futures too options markets conform real chop-chop to word events too announcements, too past times the fourth dimension salesmen come upwardly calling, the chance to earnings from such word is gone."
Whoa, this sure enough got my attention! Since I am non a journalist, I don't ordinarily acquire around challenging claims made past times the USA government. But if this statement, which is basically the efficient marketplace hypothesis, is to a greater extent than ofttimes than non true, too hence all of us traders should only pack upwardly too acquire home. Now whether or non the efficient marketplace hypothesis is truthful is dependent plain to much academic debate. But is it correct for the authorities to dry reason definitively that this hypothesis is true, too that all claims otherwise are "fraudulent"?
Political arguments aside, I mean value that the commodities marketplace may convey to a greater extent than arbitrage opportunities (i.e. less efficient) than the stock market. Perhaps this is because at that spot are to a greater extent than participants inward the commodities markets that are not speculators, peculiarly for "consumption" commodities such every bit fossil oil too gas.
This is non to rank that every seasonal blueprint that nosotros convey backtested is necessarily going to repeat itself. Many of these patterns occur alone in 1 lawsuit a year, too at that spot are only hence many years that nosotros tin purpose for our backtest, too needless to say, most of them are "in-sample". My practise is to paper-trade the blueprint for at to the lowest degree 1 twelvemonth going frontward every bit an "out-of-sample" test, especially if the blueprint is non supported past times a potent telephone substitution rationale (like the Australian dollar merchandise that I talked almost inward my premium content area.) Furthermore, past times publishing my backtest results on this blog, whatsoever hereafter repeat of the blueprint tin indeed live on regarded every bit out-of-sample, increasing our confidence inward them.
My ain involvement inward researching seasonality inward commodities marketplace was (hopefully) non piqued past times the variety of snake-oil salesman that CFTC warns us about. About a twelvemonth or hence ago, I attended a beak given past times doctor David Eliezer at Columbia University's Financial Engineering seminar. The topic is "Structure too Behavior of Commodities Markets" inward which he outlined diverse seasonal patterns that persist inward the futures markets. Dr. Eliezer was formerly the principal quantitative researcher at Goldman Sachs' commodities group. Given this academic respectability, I sure enough experience emboldened to piece of occupation into into the debate!
Political arguments aside, I mean value that the commodities marketplace may convey to a greater extent than arbitrage opportunities (i.e. less efficient) than the stock market. Perhaps this is because at that spot are to a greater extent than participants inward the commodities markets that are not speculators, peculiarly for "consumption" commodities such every bit fossil oil too gas.
This is non to rank that every seasonal blueprint that nosotros convey backtested is necessarily going to repeat itself. Many of these patterns occur alone in 1 lawsuit a year, too at that spot are only hence many years that nosotros tin purpose for our backtest, too needless to say, most of them are "in-sample". My practise is to paper-trade the blueprint for at to the lowest degree 1 twelvemonth going frontward every bit an "out-of-sample" test, especially if the blueprint is non supported past times a potent telephone substitution rationale (like the Australian dollar merchandise that I talked almost inward my premium content area.) Furthermore, past times publishing my backtest results on this blog, whatsoever hereafter repeat of the blueprint tin indeed live on regarded every bit out-of-sample, increasing our confidence inward them.
My ain involvement inward researching seasonality inward commodities marketplace was (hopefully) non piqued past times the variety of snake-oil salesman that CFTC warns us about. About a twelvemonth or hence ago, I attended a beak given past times doctor David Eliezer at Columbia University's Financial Engineering seminar. The topic is "Structure too Behavior of Commodities Markets" inward which he outlined diverse seasonal patterns that persist inward the futures markets. Dr. Eliezer was formerly the principal quantitative researcher at Goldman Sachs' commodities group. Given this academic respectability, I sure enough experience emboldened to piece of occupation into into the debate!
